My main research interests are in macroeconomics. However, the fact that Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) modelling has taken over the literature means that very little of interest to me is published in the academic journals these days. As a result I have moved more and more towards applied econometrics in my published research. Where possible I have put links to electronic versions of the papers and to data sets / program code where appropriate.

You can find my REPEC entry at the following URL:

This is link to a contribution I made to an Economic and Social Data Services project:

Papers  2003-Present

Turner, P and Wood, J, (2020)‘New perspectives on Henry Ludwell Moore's use of harmonic analysis’, Journal of the History of Economic Thought (forthcoming)

Turner, P, (2019). ‘Critical values for the Durbin-Watson test in large samples’, Applied Economics Letters. [DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2019.1691711] Code

Shaheen, R and Turner, P, (2019). ‘Fiscal multipliers and the level of economic activity: a structural threshold VAR model for the UK’, Applied Economics.[DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1679347] Data

Turner, P. M. (2018). ‘Price-cost mark-ups in UK Industry’, Applied Economics Letters, 21(2), pp. 1557-61 [DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2018.1430328] Data

Turner, P. and Wood, J.A, (2017). Non-Linear Exchange Rate Pass Through in Industrial Economies. Applied Economics.[DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1197374] Data

Yan, M., Zhang, D, Hall, M.J.B and Turner, P, (2017). How liquid are banks: Some evidence from the United Kingdom . Journal of Banking Regulation.18 (2),pp. 163 - 179. [DOI: 10.1057/jbr.2016.3]

Yan, M, Hall, M.J.B. and Turner, P. (2014) ‘Estimating Liquidity Risk Using the Exposure-Based Cash-Flow-at-Risk Approach: An Application to the UK Banking Sector’, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 19(3), July, pp. 225-238.

Turner, P. and Wood, J. A. (2014), ‘Teaching the Multiplier: The Value of a Quantitative Approach’, International Review of Economics Education, 16, pp. 147-155.

Turner, P. (2013) ‘Does the MPC still care about inflation? Some evidence from a small macroeconomic model, Applied Economics Volume 45, Number 19, 1 July 2013 , pp. 2745-2750(6) [Link]  Data  Code

Forest, J and Turner, P. (2013) ‘Alternative estimators of cointegrating parameters in models with nonstationary data: an application to US export demand’ Applied Economics, 45(5), pp. 629-636 [Link] US Export Data Code

Rizki E. Wimanda, Paul M. Turner, Maximilian J.B. Hall (2013) ‘The shape of the Phillips curve: the case of Indonesia’ Applied Economics, 45 (29)

Shaheen, R. and Turner, P. (2013) ‘Fiscal Explanations for Inflation in Pakistan’ European Journal of Social Sciences , (forthcoming)

Yan, Meilan & Hall, Maximilian J.B. & Turner, Paul, 2012. "A cost–benefit analysis of Basel III: Some evidence from the UK," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 73-82

Rizki E. Wimanda, Paul M. Turner, Maximilian J.B. Hall, (2012) "Monetary policy rules for Indonesia: which type is the most efficient?", Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 39 Iss: 4, pp.469 - 484

Turner, P. and Pentecost, E. (2010) ‘Demand and Supply Shocks in the Caribbean Economies: Implications for Monetary Union’, World Economy, Vol. 33 (October), No. 10, pp. 1325-1337. [Link]  EViews data file

Turner, P. (2010) ‘Power Properties of the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ Tests for Parameter Instability’, Applied Economics Letters, Vol 17, pp. 1049-1053. [Link] Code

Turner, P. (2010) ‘Why does no-one teach undergraduate macroeconomics using the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model?’ Journal for Economic Educators, Vol 10, No 2. Fall. [Link]

Turner, P. (2009) ‘Multiple search paths and the general-to-specific methodology’, Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods, Vol 8 , No 2, November,  pp. 505-510. [LinkCode1 Code2

Turner, P. (2009) ‘Testing for Cointegration using the Johansen Method: Are we using the correct critical values’, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol 24, pp. 825-831. [Link] Code

Ozdemir A. and Turner, P., (2008) ‘A Monetary Disequilibrium Model for Turkey: Investigation of a Disinflationary Fiscal Rule and its Implications for Monetary Policy’ Journal of Policy Modeling  March-April, Vol 30(2), pp. 349-361. [Link]  EViews data file

Hayes, P. and Turner, P. (2007), ‘ Estimates of quarterly GDP for the interwar UK economy’  Applied Economics Letters, Vol 14, No 8, pp. 569-572.[Link]; EViews data file; Code

Turner, P. (2006), ‘Response Surfaces for an F-Test for Cointegration’, Applied Economics Letters, Vol 13, No 8, pp. 479-482. [Link] Code

Turner, P (2006) ‘Teaching Undergraduate Macroeconomics with the Taylor-Romer Model’, International Journal of Economics Education, Vol 5, No 1, pp. 73-81. [Link]

Kanioura, A. and Turner, P. (2005), ‘Critical Values for an F-test for Cointegration in a Multivariate Model’, Applied Economics, Vol 37, No 3, pp. 265-270. [Link] Code

Gascoigne, J. and Turner, P. (2004) ‘Asymmetries in Bank of England Monetary Policy’ Applied Economics Letters, Vol 11, No 10, pp. 615-618.
EViews data file

Leeming, J. and Turner, P. (2004) ‘The BSE Crisis and the Price of Red Meat in the UK’, Applied Economics,Vol 36, No. 16, pp. 1825-1829. [Link] EViews file


Tlelima, T. and Turner, P.  (2004). ‘The Demand for Money in South Africa: Specification and Tests for Instability’ South African Journal of Economics. EViews data file

Chappell, D. and Turner, P., (2003) “The Taylor Rule and Dynamic Stability in a Small Macroeconomic Model”, Economic Notes: Review of Banking, Finance and Monetary Economics, 32(3),  pp. 361–370.

Rodriguez, M.C. and Turner, P. (2003) ‘Currency Substitution and the Demand for Money in Mexico’, Applied Economics Letters, Vol 10, No 1, pp 59-62. [Link]

Holly, S., Turner, P. and Weeks, M. (2003) ‘Asymmetric Adjustment and Bias in Estimation of an Equilibrium Relationship from a Cointegrating Vector’, Computational Economics, Vol 21, pp. 195-202. [Link] Code